Global Warming in Antarctica?

Several people have asked me about the 'warm' weather that I experienced, and whether this was due to global warming. Others have asked about my photos of liquid water (e. g. above). Is this due to global warming? Did I see global warming in Antarctica?

I've hesitated to answer these questions here, because these are not simple ones. However, with the caveat that I am NOT an expert on climatology, let me tell you what I know.

The evidence for global warming is very clear.

The carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen to levels far beyond anything seen at least since the last Ice Age, and very probably for the last 400,00 years. For the purposes of considering the future of humanity, I don't think that we need to go any further back. This increase is clearly due to human activity.

Global temperatures are rising, and the last 50 years have been the warmest in centuries. There are many many places where one can compare photos of glaciers taken 50-100 years ago with recent photos; the differences are dramatic. A quick google search found examples from Glacier National Park, elsewhere in North America , and even from Africa's Mt. Kilamanjaro. One can debate temperature trends, the effect of heat islands, etc., but it is clear that these glaciers have formed over long periods, and are now rapidly disappearing. Further, they are far from cities or other local heat sources.

These examples are all from the Northern hemisphere or equatorial region (Mt. Kilamanjaro is 3 degrees south of the Equator). In Antarctica, the evidence is less dramatic, but there are clear signs of thinning glaciers.

Of course, one can find contrary evidence. In McMurdo, I heard a talk about exploring the dry valleys; the speaker pointed out one location where there is now apparently much more ice than in 1904, when Scott visited the site. On balance, however, there is much more evidence for global warming than against it.

That said, what I observed was not evidence of glacial warming. The temperatures during my visit were well within the expected range. The water pools were not anomalies; the snow around McMurdo always melts on hot summer days, forming small freshwater pools. Global warming is real, but one needs careful, long-term study to observe the effects - one visit to an area is not enough.

Anybody who wants to learn more about global warming should visit the website of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Their reports (available on the website) discuss an enormous volume of climatological data drawn from many sources. Notwithstanding an occasional gaffe, their carefully worded conclusions represent the views of the vast majority of climate scientists.

Looking at the Data

It's been several weeks since I posted. The major reason for the gap is that my father passed away in early January, and it's been tough. I'm very glad that this didn't happen while I was in Antarctica.

In the past few weeks, we (the royal we - mostly, it has been Steve Barwick, Jordan Hanson, Lisa Gerhardt and Ryan Nichol) have been looking at the data, which is flowing smoothly through the internet link. Mostly, things look very good, and the station continues to work well. This data falls into two classes: housekeeping data, relating to station performance, and triggered data, collected when the antennae see something).

Lisa Gerhardt posted some of the early (through early January) housekeeping data on the web Please remember that not all of this data has been calibrated yet. The temperatures in particular seem low. That said, a few trends are clear. One is that the wind kicked up shortly after we left (starting around Dec. 26th), and again in early January. So, there may be hope for the wind generator. A second is that the diurnal (day-night) variations are present, but small.

The antenna data is harder to describe here, but we are also making progress. Some background might be helpful here. We collect data (and call it an event) whenever the signals on two of the four antennae are above an adjustable threshold. These signals could come from background noise, natural sources, or man-made sources. When a trigger occurs, we record the data for each antenna for 60 nanoseconds (billionths of a second). This may seem like a short interval, but a real neutrino event should produce a pulse that is less than a few nanoseconds long.

One thing that jumped out early was that the trigger rate was partly periodic. We saw triggers every 60 seconds, as expected, These are the 'heartbeat' pulses that we create to check the detector. But, we also see other, unexpected periodic signals. Sometimes, triggers are separated by almost exactly 6 seconds - pretty clearly, a man-made source. The rate of these pairs varies over 24 hours, and we suspect that it comes from the switching power supplies that power the internet hardware. If so, this will disappear when the internet equipment is removed. We also see other events not related to these periodic signals. These might be 'thermal noise' the irreducible background associated with random noise due to molecular motion, etc. This thermal noise provides the 'natural' limit to detector performance. There are ways to reduce it (better antenna, lower noise preamplifier, etc.), but this thermal noise limit is our immediate goal.

Home

I made it home in 2009, but only barely, arriving at SFO in the early afternoon of Dec. 31st.

The days of waiting for the C-17 were also days of snow, which was beautiful, but limited our outdoor opportunities. The picture above is actually in color! The snow also caused a 24 hour flight delay, from Dec. 29th to Dec. 30th.

The 30th was sunny, which was doubly fortunate because we had to wait outside while the plane landed and then while they unloaded the incoming cargo and loaded the outgoing. The flight was fairly quiet - there were only about 20 of us. The cargo load was also light - my seat had a view of a large hydraulic jack, used, per the stencil, to raise airplane noses. I'm not sure what it was doing in Antarctica, or why it rated air cargo back.



One nice thing about the wait was that we got to see both the C-17 and a Basler land. A Basler is a re-engined, updated DC-3 - a 60+ year old airframe from a 75 year old design! These are the mid-sized transports, between the smaller "Twin Otters" and the larger LC-130's.



We got back to Christchurch around 8 pm that evening, leaving just enough time for dinner and a nights sleep before catching an 8:40 am flight to Auckland. Unfortunately, there was no time for another visit to the botanical garden.

Auckland was a rough return to civilization. First, there was a 5-hour layover. This was followed by an introduction to post-Dec-25th airport security. After the metal detector and X-ray machines, we were frisked and our carry-on luggage was minutely inspected. Quite a contrast from the -17, where the security check was a reminder not to pack anything sharp in your carry-on luggage.

Now that the trip is over, I will post less frequently to the blog. I have a few more trip-related posts, but, in the longer term I want to talk about how our data analysis is going, what we've learned from ARIANNA, and how it fits into the wider world.

Christmas in McMurdo

The guest post seems to have fallen through, so I’ll write a bit about Christmas here. It’s a big deal here - a 2-day weekend (the normal RPSC (Raytheon Polar Services Corp.) workweek is 6 days – 54 hours). It started on Dec. 24th, with a big party in the VMF (Vehicle Maintenance Facility), with food and drinks, a slideshow of contributed family photos, some dancing and lots of talking. Plus a chance to visit with Santa, on his sleigh (below; it's very rare to see a Santas sleigh that is actually designed for the North Pole). All in a cavernous building usually used to repair heavy machinery. Or course, there was plenty of snow outside.



On Christmas Day, the main event was dinner, served in 3 shifts (3 pm, 5 pm and 7 pm). The dining crew pulled out all the stops – roast duck, prime rib with horseradish sauce, and lobster tails in herbed butter. Thorsten and I were invited to eat in the BFC (“Berg Field Camp,” also known by residents as “Building Full of Chicks”, for the gender of the people who work there). It was nice to eat with a smaller crowd (~ 25 people, again from helicopter pilots to mountaineers, even if it did mean require carrying our plates of food through the sub-freezing outdoors.
After dinner, we all walked over to MAAG (McMurdo Alternative Art Gallery), which I discussed in the last post. It was a nice evening, even for someone who doesn’t celebrate Christmas.

Waiting for Godot (the C-17)

The past few days in McMurdo have been largely a waiting period, waiting for the next flight out, on Dec. 29th. The 6-day gap between flights is partly because of Christmas, which is a big holiday here, with a party, a festive dinner and two days off work. The days were Friday and Saturday (the 25th and 26th), with Sunday a normal work day. But, Sunday isn't a normal work day for the Air Force. Ergo, a long gap between flights.

Anyway, I'm working on a special guest post on "Christmas in McMurdo" from a long-time resident. In the meantime, here is a picture from "MAAG," McMurdo Alternative Art Gallery, which was also on the 25th. The name is actually a pretty good description of the event; there was a wide variety of art on display, plus some music and a juggler. Longtime IceCubers will recognize P. J. Charpentier on the violin, above. The picture below shows one local organization; more details are available here



Another interesting exhibit was a room sized camera obscura (pinhole camera) a darkened room with a single hole; the outside was bright enough to project an upside down image of most of McMurdo.

Otherwise, we have been collecting data with the station, filling out various forms, including a detailed environmental survey and starting to work on a journal article about the station.

It has been interesting to see how my body has adapted to the cold. Right now, it is 27 degrees (Fahrenheit), and very lightly snowing, and I'm comfortably walking around in a long sleeve shirt and fleece jacket, jeans and sneakers and wool socks. Three weeks ago, I would have been wearing way more clothes.

McMurdo Station

I should probably say a little about McMurdo station, especially since I will be here for several days, waiting for the next flight out. It is a very interesting place, with a summer population currently about 1100, and about 200+ people who winter over.

As you can see from the picture (taken from "Ob Hill") McMurdo is mostly a logistics base, supporting scientific expeditions elswhere in Antarctica. Nearby sites include the dry valleys (one place I'd love to visit is "Blood Falls"), glaciers, the Antarctic mountains and the edge of the ice shelf (including penguin research). McMurdo also support expeditions further afield, including the South Pole Station. The WAIS (West Antarctic Ice Sheet) Divide drilling project is a multi-year effort to drill 3400 meter deep ice cores to study the climate over the past 100,00 years. This is a key effort in learning how climate has evolved over time. And, of course, McMurdo supports the South Pole, including IceCube, which is a major effort there, and probably the biggest project on the continent.

So, most of what goes on here involves logistics - shipping supplies to these camps via a variety of helicopters and aircraft, and providing temporary storage facilities. There are also some scientific laboratories which are mostly used for "local" studies around McMurdo, including studies of sea life under the ice.

Since "supplies" includes everything from various types of fuel to mountaineering equipment to camping gear and scientific equipment, there is a pretty wide range of activities here.

One neat thing about the place is being able to meet people from a huge range of backgrounds. Today (Friday), I ate brunch in the galley (below) with some people from the Army Corps of Engineers, studying drainage issues around McMurdo, and a Catholic priest from New Zealand (here as a chaplain). I've also talked with heavy equipment repairman, helicopter and Twin Otter pilots and mechanics, a handful of carpenters in the New Zealand Army, and a woman studying penguins. There are also groups from the U.S. Air Force and Air National Guards, flying the LC-130s and C-17s.

Most of Mcmurdo consists of various types of storage yards and motor pools, and dormitory buildings (many of the buildings that look like barracks). There is also a kitchen and galley (this accounts for about 100 of the people here), a hospital, library, gym, bowling alley (apparently non-functional), small store, post office, chapel, coffee house and bar. Most of the 'recreational' activities operate very limited hours. Since many people work the night shift, some recreational activities are scheduled for the early morning, to accommodate them.

Our Stuff Returns

Thursday. Our sling load came home today, on (todays) schedule. The top photo shows the sling load being deposited on the helipad.

Unloading was quick; the bottom photo shows it caught in a traffic jam on the way to BFC, where we will unpack it and send the scientific stuff North. Our stuff is the wooden box on the frontloader, plus the load in the stake truck behind it.



I should probably also mention that the station continues to communicate, and we are taking data continuously. The next step is to get a more serious data analysis effort going.